Why Bitcoin’s Gap With Record‑High AI Stocks Is Expected to Close

As AI‑driven technology shares climb to unprecedented levels, Bitcoin has hovered just under $62,000, more than 50% below its October peak. Researchers at Charles Schwab and Hashdex argue that this divergence is a short‑term capital rotation rather than a sign of structural weakness in the cryptocurrency.

Hashdex chief investment officer Samir Kerbage points to where investors are directing attention. "Capital follows attention and narratives," he wrote in a mid‑year outlook. The current narrative favors AI infrastructure plays, a robust IPO pipeline, and macro positioning around interest‑rate expectations. Those themes have siphoned funds that might otherwise have bolstered crypto positions.

Despite the flow shift, Kerbage highlights several underlying developments that continue to reinforce Bitcoin’s long‑term case. Institutional infrastructure is expanding across banks, brokers and payment providers, while U.S. regulatory clarity is improving. The pending CLARITY Act, if passed this summer, could further solidify the legal framework for digital assets.

On‑chain activity tells a complementary story. Stablecoin transaction volume in the first half of the year already exceeds the total for all of 2025, and tokenized real‑world assets have risen more than 60% year‑to‑date. Crypto‑ecosystem transactions hit record levels in the second quarter, widening the gap between market capitalization and network usage—a gap analysts expect to narrow as capital returns.

Charles Schwab’s Jim Ferraioli takes a historical lens, noting that Bitcoin’s post‑halving recoveries have consistently taken more than a year to climb above the breakeven cost for less efficient miners, which he estimates at roughly $95,000. The average investor cost basis sits near $80,000, creating potential selling pressure if price stagnation persists. Yet the pattern itself has become embedded in market psychology; each halving cycle reinforces expectations of a multi‑year rally.

The convergence of these factors suggests a likely reallocation of capital back to Bitcoin once AI‑related enthusiasm stabilizes. For institutional investors, the implication is clear: exposure to crypto may regain attractiveness as the cost‑of‑capital environment normalizes. Miners, too, stand to benefit if price pressure eases, reducing the risk of hash‑rate shutdowns that have plagued the network during previous downturns.

In practical terms, the shift could manifest in renewed demand for Bitcoin‑linked exchange‑traded products, higher participation in staking‑like services, and increased use of stablecoins for cross‑border payments. Retail investors who have watched Bitcoin’s price dip may re‑enter the market, especially if regulatory signals continue to improve.

Overall, the current disconnect appears to be a symptom of a broader capital‑flow cycle driven by AI hype, rather than an indication that Bitcoin’s fundamentals have deteriorated. As attention migrates and the AI rally settles, the cryptocurrency’s historical recovery rhythm is likely to resume, narrowing the valuation gap that currently exists.